I'm rally tired of telling people that "the internet" (or the larger info revolution) is NOT the first-impression snapshot from the day they got there,. That's a snapshot of the beginnings of an avalanche in progress.
I submit one of my current thought experiments (adjust appropriately for non-US school systems): Imagine a standard 17-year old high school senior, probably with a tablet. Imagine a standard 21-year old fresh college graduate, probably with a serious laptop. Imagine a 25-year old who's out trying to pay the rent, probably with a variety of stuff at home online, and stuff at work, too. And for good measure, a 13-year old who's about to head off to high school . . . Picture each of these people when they were the same age, and look at the tech they lived with. Four years makes a difference, and eight years is completely different. And things are not slowing down.
So these long, straight line extrapolations are even more ridiculous than other straight line extrapolations.
A couple of months ago, I was in a restaurant, and a couple of tables away form me was a mother with a 4-year old, who was playing with an iPad. I sat there thinking that that tablet would be the embarrassingly primitive and underpowered machine he would be nostalgic about in twenty or thirty years, as his first. I really can't imagine that world.
no subject
I'm rally tired of telling people that "the internet" (or the larger info revolution) is NOT the first-impression snapshot from the day they got there,. That's a snapshot of the beginnings of an avalanche in progress.
I submit one of my current thought experiments (adjust appropriately for non-US school systems): Imagine a standard 17-year old high school senior, probably with a tablet. Imagine a standard 21-year old fresh college graduate, probably with a serious laptop. Imagine a 25-year old who's out trying to pay the rent, probably with a variety of stuff at home online, and stuff at work, too. And for good measure, a 13-year old who's about to head off to high school . . .
Picture each of these people when they were the same age, and look at the tech they lived with. Four years makes a difference, and eight years is completely different. And things are not slowing down.
So these long, straight line extrapolations are even more ridiculous than other straight line extrapolations.
A couple of months ago, I was in a restaurant, and a couple of tables away form me was a mother with a 4-year old, who was playing with an iPad. I sat there thinking that that tablet would be the embarrassingly primitive and underpowered machine he would be nostalgic about in twenty or thirty years, as his first. I really can't imagine that world.