Jul. 16th, 2008

Vouchers are one of those partisan ideas that has great support amonst Republicans and is almost universally reviled by Democrats. The problem have with vouchers is that the plans I've seen basically violate the laws of supply and demand.

According to this 25% of the schools in the US are private schools. However, 82% of those are also very small schools (under 300 students) so the actual capacity of these schools is in fact much lower -- 11% of all students in the US go to private school.

So let's say that current capacity is at 15%.

As of right now, market forces have found a sort of medium for the supply and demand for private schooling. While currently demand is quite high, supply is limited by the cost of equipping a private school, qualified teachers, staff, and all of those things that go into teaching children.

Let's put vouchers into the system. Now, theoretically anyone can go to private school. Right?

But wait, we only have capacity for 15%. Supply will surely go up once vouchers are available -- there is money to be made now that the government is giving it away -- but how long does it take to put together a school? How much can the existing schools grow? Sure, there will be a lot of teachers out of work as the money for the public school system dwindles and they go into private teaching, but there are still facilities to deal with, and putting together an organization.

Hey, economics 101 question: When supply can only increase slowly but demand rises sharply, what happens to prices?

If you answered "They go up" you are half right. If you answered "They go up a lot" get a gold star. Since anyone can have a Voucher's worth of tuition, and there isn't enough supply to meet the demand of "Anyone who wants one" then costs will very quickly go up to Demand + $X, where $X is probably a little less than what the parents currently sending their kids to private school will pay.

What does this mean? Anyone who currently attends private school gets a discount, anyone currently attending public school who wants to go to private school STILL has to pay for it, public schools lose some unknown but let's face it, probably large amount of their funding, and the inner city kids get shafted because there aren't private schools in the inner city anyway. But all the existing private schools get to double their income while the rich parents get a discount AND get to feel like they've "helped" the poor.

Maybe eventually the government giving away of money will cause the supply to come up to reach the new demand, causing prices to go back down to reasonable levels, and I have to wonder if the public school system will even survive. But of course private schools, who won't have any real accountability, will naturally be much better than public schools. Because the current excellent education that 10% gets will continue to hold when 80% enroll into the same system. At least they won't be saddled with No Child Left Behind. After all, private schools get to kic out whomever they want whyever they want. Sounds like fun to me.

This little diatribe brought to you by CNN and the letter F.

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